Predicting March Madness Upsets
The ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, and the SEC all have one thing in common when it comes to Final Four. What is it? Well Since 1997 these conferences make up 95% of the teams that were in the Final Four.
Over that same period of time the average total of seeds in the final four is 11. Total up your final four selections and your total should be around the number 11. Each year 1.7 number one seeds advance to the final four. A number 2 or number 3 seed will win the tournament 30-40% of time, based on historical trends.
How many possible Bracket selections are there?
There are 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 possible brackets with 65 teams included. The number is slightly lower with 64 teams 9,223,372,036,775,808. Now we can see why picking a perfect bracket is 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1.
Round One, Bracket Upsets.
It’s just not going to happen here in this first round. At least the odds aren’t favorable for there being a March Madness Upset in the first round.
Matchups #1 vs. #16 and #2 vs. #15
Go ahead and move your #1 seeds to the next round. There has never been a 16 seed that has won since the bracket moved to 64 teams since 1985. The 15 seeds are just 4-80 since 1985 which means you are pretty safe putting the #2 seeds through.
Matchups: #3 vs. #14 and #4 vs. #13
Moving on past predictable #1 and #2 seeds, you now have two possible directions in which to move. One way to go is to pick a few Bracket upsets with the best chance of picking an underdog and hope they make a run. Here you need to decide whether you’re going to selectively pick your upsets or if you’re going to pick all the possible upsets. Personally I believe that it is best to have a few teams in mind and not to go over-board on upsets. As long as it doesn’t conflict with your Final Four predictions, I recommend you fill in the #3 and #4 seeds to win their games. The reason for this is that the #1, #2, #3 and #4 seeds have won about 90% of the time since 1985. There is a good chance one of these teams will lose in the first round but since that is so difficult to predict, the odds are in your favor to have them all move on after the first round. Now that you have moved all these teams through to the next round your total possible bracket numbers have been reduced to 140,737,425,855,328. Still pretty high, but your inching closer to that highly touted title of Office Pool champion or Bracket Buster Guru.
Matchups: #5 vs. #12, #6 vs. #11, #7 vs. #10 and #8 vs. #9
Here is where you make your money in March Madness brackets.
These matchups are difficult for the Bracket makers, many of these teams fill jilted for being Number 12 seeds. The most Bracket upsets come within these matchups and here’s where your bracket is made or broken. The #5 vs. #12 has historically proved to bust many brackets.
The #5 seeds have gone just 11-9 vs. the #12 seeds in the past 5 years of the bracket. These numbers show that a #12 seed should be moving on (at least one).
The 7-10 and 8-9 match ups appear to be toss ups. Since 1985, #7 seeds have won about 60% of the time and #8 seeds have won about 45% of the time. That being said, it will take more than just picking a “higher seed” to overcome Joe public selecting their bracket winners. Check out theFBZ March Madness Resources for tools to help you decide on which upset to select.
Moving on to the Second Round
Are you excited about your bracket yet? In the second round, the rate of straight-up wins by underdogs is 5% higher than in the tournament as a whole. Sunday is our day gamblers, underdogs in this round, as the lower seeds have been 27-29 SU! The obstacle has been faced by the #2 seeds squaring off with a #10 seed. In this spot, #2 seeds have gone just 5-9. But, when a #2 faces a #7, they are 9-4. If you have a match-up of a #2 vs. #10 in this round, you may want to give strong consideration to the lower seed. The underdogs emerge from the #10, #11 and #12 seeds in this round. These teams after winning their first round games have been 41-44 in this round to advance to the sweet 16. Now those are numbers that can help you win your bracket this year.
Let’s move on to the Sweet 16.
Be careful here when selecting your Sweet 16 picks, remember it is rare to see all #1 seeds reach the Elite Eight. It has happened in only two tournaments. These matchups are historically broken down into 25% #1 vs. #2 seeds and close to 20% are #1 vs. #3 seeds. Only about 10% of all tournaments have seen both teams in these matchups that are both #4 seeds or lower. Roughly 66% of #1 seeds reach the Elite Eight and about three-eighths of #2 seeds reach the Elite Eight. The history shows that about 67% of the Elite Eight teams are #1, #2, or #3 seeds. Consider having one match-up of #1 vs. #2, and likely another #1 vs. #3. You should also think about having four or five teams seeded in the #1-#3 range advancing to the Elite eight.
Now that you have made it this far, congratulations your almost a winner. The Bracket upsets start decreasing now and the tournament actually gets pretty predictable. This round has seen 27 underdogs of #4 seeding or higher. Only 15% of them have won. Be safe and stick to the higher seeds here in this round.
Good Luck this year with your Brackets and if you’re looking for more information on March Madness, Bracket Contest, Selecting Winners or Free March Madness Service plays then check out theFBZ March Madness Bracket Central. theFBZ is where the winning starts this March Madness.








